Just as millions outside the groves of acadame discover the joys
of essentially free global communication on the Internet, it's
all changing. Mike Holderness asks whither...
High anxiety for hitch-hikers on the Infobahn
"Information Superhighway" is a mouthful. This month's on-line
in-jargon is "infobahn", from the German Autobahn -- a
highway originally built for tanks to roll down. On the infobahn, the
tanks have names like "Murdoch" and "AT&T". They're massing
in the corporate staging areas, buying into every service they can
lay their hands on, and the gentle citizens of the Net are
nervous and jumpy.
Until now, the Internet has been (it's nerve-racking to say this
in public) a kind of anarchist socialism. Archives, directories
and tools to navigate the tangled web of information have been
developed and maintained voluntarily or under research grants,
often unofficially -- from each according to their abilities.
Those who advocate the Internet as a great leap forward in human
communication and democracy -- the "netizens" -- are keen on
participation. In the age of multimedia hype and "the new
literacy", they exchange enormous quantities of plain old text.
The Murdochs, on the other hand, are interested in profiting from
entertainment, and that means transmitting lots of moving
pictures. A picture may be worth 1000 words, but a minute of
video can be a million times as much data.
Any economist looking at the current state of the Internet will
mutter "tragedy of the commons". When a resource can be used
without marginal cost, eventually community and cultural
constraints will break down and the commons will be stripped
bare. Ask any dolphin.
The Internet has survived so far because capacity has always
grown faster than demand. Universities and companies pay a flat-
rate annual fee to connect. There is no charge for minutes of use
or megabytes moved. Philosopher Professor Mark Taylor at Williams
University remarks "how blissfully unaware those of us who work
in universities are. For us, the net is just sorta there for the
using."
But it is presently showing signs of strain, as millions of new
users pour in from outside the academic computing and science
communities. If you try to retrieve files from the
archives at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology any time
when anyone's awake in the USA, you'll probably get the message
"there are too many people connected from your region." (Please
do not try this now.) So how should MIT fund increased capacity,
or how should London's Imperial College or the University of
Cologne pay for a full-service regional archive?
Any mention of charging for services produces a welter of
panicked messages. Often, in this febrile infosphere of instant
response, people confuse charges for services with charges for
communications; the more thoughtful see the latter as the biggest
threat. It is precisely because use of the net bears a fixed
cost, many say, that it has been able to develop so rapidly and
imaginatively. Equity of access is also a worry: if the net is as
powerful as its proponents believe, what happens if a global
underclass is excluded?
"We believe in the pressing need for global democracy, not a
global supermarket," declared the February 94 New Delhi Symposium
on New Technologies. The net "represents the most important new
effort to expand democracy into a wide range of human endeavors,"
the Washington, DC-based Taxpayer Asset Project says in its call
to resist metered use of the US infobahn. Last week [ca. 20/Jun/94]
Senator Daniel Inouye introduced a Bill to the US Congress,
supported by the lobbying group Computer Professionals for Social
Responsibility, calling for a "public lane" on the infobahn. It
would reserve up to 20% of the capacity of new advanced
telecommunications networks, such as 500-TV-channel cable into
homes, for "non-commercial educational and informational services
and civic discourse."
The TAP says that usage pricing could extinguish list-servers,
which work like 18th-century corresponding societies but rather
faster, re-distributing messages to hundreds or thousands of
subscribers. The New Zealand net has begun charging for outgoing
international traffic; the problem is that on the net it's hard
to identify an "originator" for a transaction. You can send a
very short mail message requesting a very large file from a
server in New Zealand. File-server operators there at present
merely post messages asking for discretion.
The US National Science Foundation is on the point of signing
contracts to provide four infobahn "Network Access Points". At
least two of the contractors (Pac Bell and Sprint) are phone
companies. As regular net-commentator Carl Kadie says, "I think
the biggest threat to unmetered Internet access can be expressed
in one phrase: 'Free International Long-Distance Telephone'. It
is now possible with software to have an almost real-time voice
conversation over the Internet. This has the potential of putting
a huge amount of new traffic on the net and of competing with the
phone companies that own much of the net."
Here we enter the twilight world of the economics of
telecommunications. Almost all costs are fixed. Once cable or
fibre is laid, switches are installed and support staff are
hired, the usage-sensitive costs are minuscule. Fixed-cost access
makes sense.
Richard Cox, principal telecomms consultant for Mandarin
Technology in South Glamorgan, agrees that it's largely a matter
of social policy that I pay some [UKpound]1500 a year for telephone
service while my grandmother, who's never made an international
call and won't speak long-distance for more than a minute, pays a
tenth of that. We cost the world's phone companies about the
same. He estimates that around 20% of the cost of telephone
service is the cost of keeping records, issuing bills and
collecting payment. (BT say the proportion is "commercially
confidential".)
A subscriber to the British CIX bulletin board system, who prefers
to remain anonymous, recalls a 1981 meeting with a manager of the
old Prestel on-line service, who "told us amazed information
providers that the average Prestel user bill at that time was
[UKpound]1.50 per month, while the cost of sending out the bill was
[UKpound]8.00. When it was pointed out that the best thing they could do
was probably to stop sending the bills, he just didn't seem to
understand."
Things get even more complicated on the net. One reason it's so
cheap to operate is that it's "connectionless": when you log your
computer on to a machine in Nevada, the end-to-end link is
illusory. Information travels in "packets", which effectively
find their own way to their destination, possibly by several
different routes in the course of a minute. So record-keeping of
heroic proportions would be required to issue bills.
So how can use be rationed? Economists Jeffrey MacKie-Mason and
Hal Varian at the University of Michigan propose a "congestion
pricing" scheme. When your computer sent off a packet, it'd
attach a note of how much you were prepared to pay for it to arrive
promptly -- say 0.002 US cent for 200 bytes. Automatic real-time
"auctions" at switching centres would determine the lowest
"bid" at which packets would be passed; every packet which got through
would pay that lowest price, and others would be delayed. When
there was no congestion, all packets would travel free.
The neat thing about this is that it's the commercial services
which Murdoch and friends want to put on the net -- interactive
TV and so on -- which demand real-time communication. Mailing
lists and text discussions can tolerate delays. In this sense,
the "netizens" really would become hitch-hikers on the infobahn,
squeezing into the gaps in the coming flood of commerce.
However, as Steve Wolff, Director of the NSF Division of
Networking and Communications, points out: "Congestion pricing is
technically challenging... two or three orders of magnitude [i.e.
100 to 1000 times] more work than switches do at present." While
TAP's concerns "are valid," he says, "their fears are at present
quite groundless... Since it's clear that users want flat-rate
pricing -- and I should make it clear that I like it too -- any
[company] that didn't offer it would go out of business."
And author Bruce Sterling comments pithily that "You want an
example of a communication system that doesn't charge for
transport? The English language. Think of the Internet as a
language rather than a machine and most of your questions
become irrelevant. I think the Internet is tougher than you give
it credit for. From now on the struggle will not be over
mechanical control of the means of information, but over spin-
control of the zeitgeist."