Frelimo looks certain to win the 3-5 December parliamentary election, and to have a working majority in the new parliament. By 15 December, 10 of the 11 provincial constituencies have now declared their provisional results, and these give Frelimo 108 seats, and the main opposition party, Renamo, 92 seats.The only province still to declare is the largest constituency, Nampula, which has 50 seats. And, according to Renamo itself, Frelimo will win 21 of these.
On 14 December, Renamo claimed that it had won both the presidential and the parliamentary elections, But its own projections for the parliamentary vote deny this.
In Nampula, it claimed that Renamo has 57.91 per cent of the joint Renamo-Frelimo vote, and Frelimo 42.09. This way of looking at the vote eliminates the ten minor parties and coalitions - which is legitimate, in that none of them have achieved the five per sent of the national vote they would need to win any parliamentary seats.
Applying the mathematics of proportional representation to the Renamo Nampula figures gives Renamo 29 seats and Frelimo 21. Thus, on this projection Frelimo will have 129 seats (the same figure as in the outgoing parliament), while Renamo will have 121.
The provincial breakdown of the seats is as follows:
Frelimo Renamo Total
Maputo city 14 2 16
Maputo province 12 1 13
Gaza 16 0 16
Inhambane 13 4 17
Sofala 4 17 21
Manica 5 10 15
Tete 8 10 18
Zambezia 15 34 49
Cabo Delgado 15 7 22
Niassa 6 7 13
Nampula (projection) 21 29 50
Total 129 121 250
None of the results is definitive, since the National Elections Commission (CNE) is still verifying all the votes that were declared invalid at the polling stations.
The CNE must also solve the problem of a fair number of polling station notices (over 100 in Sofala, for instance) rejected by computers because of mathematical discrepancies.
But it is highly unlikely that this work of verification will result in any statistically significant changes to the final results.
On 15 December Frelimo dismissed the claim by the main opposition force, Renamo, that it has won the 3-5 December general elections.
At a Maputo press conference, Frelimo general secretary Manuel Tome, declared that Renamo was making such claims because in reality it envisaged defeat.
"Faced with a likely defeat, Renamo in despair shouts ''we've won'', in an attempt to confuse the mass media and the international community", said Tome. This, he added, was "just a piece of hysterics", dictated by the failure of Renamo's attempts to secure victory by fraud.
Tome alleged that Renamo had attempted "massive fraud", including the stuffing of ballot boxes. He said incidents of Renamo agents slipping extra Renamo votes into ballot boxes had been uncovered in Sofala, Zambezia and Nampula provinces.
Renamo had offered bribes, including in foreign currency, in attempts to corrupt polling station staff, he added.
A third type of fraud, claimed by Tome, was the distribution by Renamo "of false polling station notices with the aim of replacing the genuine ones".
All the proven cases of fraud, he added, "are invariably linked to Renamo personnel, and to Renamo itself".
Tome said that, wherever Frelimo had evidence of such fraud, it had submitted a protest to the relevant electoral body. The National Elections Commission (CNE) would analyse these protests, "and we shall accept the CNE's decision".
Vigilance had hampered Renamo's attempts at fraud, he said. In particular, Renamo's attempt to corrupt the CNE's computerised vote tabulation system "has been largely neutralised".
Faced with this, Tome claimed, Renamo thought it had "no alternative "but to put the cart before the horse, and proclaim the results before the CNE."
By declaring victory in advance, he argued, Renamo was "attempting to discredit the real results which only the CNE is empowered to proclaim".
Tome warned that Renamo was "preparing an atmosphere of tension in which any incident might spark off a chain reaction". He called on all citizens to remain calm and serene, while waiting for definitive results.
Joaquim Chissano 310,584 (68.1%) 270,985 (66.5%)
Afonso Dhlakama 85,372 (18.7%) 136,512 (33.5%)
Others 60,294 (13.2%) -
Frelimo 250,436 (58.3%) 228,781 (61.3%)
Renamo 98,180 (22.8%) 99,462 (26.6%)
Democratic Union 25,041 (5.8%) 4,837 (1.3%)
Others 56,223 (13.1%) 40,218 (10.8%)
Total 22 22
Frelimo 15 15
Renamo 6 7
UD 1 0
Joaquim Chissano 66,146 (17.3%) 68,480 (20.1%)
Afonso Dhlakama 282,338 (74.0%) 272,393 (79.9%)
Others 33,221 (8.7%) -
Frelimo 53,667 (14.5%) 56,573 (19.7%)
Renamo 284,495 (76.8%) 202,435 (70.5%)
Others 32,472 (8.7%) 28,143 (9.8%)
Total 21 21
Frelimo 3 4
Renamo 18 17
Joaquim Chissano 81,394 (33.9%) 95,477 (34.0%)
Afonso Dhlakama 121,324 (50.5%) 185,277 (66.0%)
Others 37,573 (15.6%) -
Frelimo 63,620 (27.4%) 83,828 (31.9%)
Renamo 134,176 (57.8%) 149,275 (56.9%)
Others 34,148 (14.7%) 32,794 (11.2%)
Total 13 15
Frelimo 4 5
Renamo 9 10
Joaquim Chissano 113,689 (40.7%) 126,150 (40.2%)
Afonso Dhlakama 118,311 (42.4%) 187,508 (59.8%)
Others 47,165 (16.9%) -
Frelimo 83,838 (31.3%) 105,876 (37.3%)
Renamo 131,444 (49.1%) 140,452 (49.4%)
Democratic Union 15,749 (5.9%) 4,405 (1.6%)
Others 36,761 (13.7%) 33,471 (11.7%)
Total 15 18
Frelimo 5 8
Renamo 9 10
UD 1 0
Joaquim Chissano 349,844 (38.6%) 211,137 (28.2%)
Afonso Dhlakama 431,538 (47.6%) 556,744 (71.8%)
Others 125,112 (13.8%) -
Frelimo 278,559 (31.5%) 180,264 (25.9%)
Renamo 463,844 (52.5%) 415,699 (59.7%)
Others 141,935 (16.0%) 100,037 (14.4%)
Total 49 49
Frelimo 18 15
Renamo 29 34
UD 2 0
Joaquim Chissano 315,874 (95.0%) 324,996 (95.14%)
Afonso Dhlakama 6,153 (1.9%) 16,586 (4.86%)
Others 10,433 (3.1%) -
Frelimo 259,868 (81.6%) 288,916 (87.4%)
Renamo 8,513 (2.7%) 11,443 (3.5%)
Democratic Union 21,861 (6.9%) 2,288 (0.7%)
Others 28,161 (8.8%) 27,798 (8.4%)
Total 16 16
Frelimo 15 16
Renamo 0 0
UD 2 0
Joaquim Chissano 271,674 (78.7%) 197,796 (71.1%)
Afonso Dhlakama 35,816 (10.4%) 80,520 (28.9%)
Others 37,836 (10.9%) -
Frelimo 192,659 (59.7%) 162,021 (62.3%)
Renamo 42,018 (13.0%) 53,530 (20.5%)
Democratic Union 38,255 (11.8%) 7,936 (3.0%)
Others 50.027 (15.5%) 37,565 (14.2%)
Total 18 17
Frelimo 13 13
Renamo 3 4
UD 2 0
Joaquim Chissano 239,898 (90.1%) 232,763 (90.0%)
Afonso Dhlakama 16,420 (6.2%) 25,813 (10.0%)
Others 9,979 (3.7%) -
Frelimo 198,429 (78.0%) 215,911 (84.8%)
Renamo 17,749 (7.0%) 24,326 (9.6%)
Democratic Union 15,055 (5.9%) 1,866 (0.7%)
Others 23,197 (9.1%) 12,566 (4.9%)
Total 13 13
Frelimo 12 12
Renamo 1 1
Joaquim Chissano 332,725 (87.5%) 292,146 (86.7%)
Afonso Dhlakama 33,405 (8.8%) 44,700 (13.3%)
Frelimo 293,511 (79.0%) 274,529 (82.6%)
Renamo 33,436 (9.0%) 45,007 (13.5%)
Total 18 16
Frelimo 17 14
Renamo 1 2
The European Union's joint Observer Mission in Mozambique has concluded that the problems and irregularities that occurred during the general elections of 3-5 December "are of such a minor scale that they do not in any way invalidate the outcome of the polls".
Presenting a preliminary report from the 64 EU observers at a press conference on 12 December, the head of the Mission, Pertti Paasio, said they believed that "polling has been conducted in a free and fair manner allowing the Mozambican people to express their will, and that the election results will validly reflect this".
Paasio said his observers believed that provisions are in place to ensure transparency in the provincial count and tabulation of the results.
The guarantee of transparency, he said, "is a new facility that allows party agents and observers to view results on a computer monitor".
(Under this arrangement, technical staff key the results from polling stations into a data base, and party agents can consult the data base through the computer monitor to confirm that the figures are the same as the ones they have collected from the polling stations.)
Paasio said that the provisions for the provincial count had led to "initial problems, complaints and misunderstandings". But consultations between the electoral bodies, the political parties and the observer groups "produced further clarification and resolved technical and other problems".
He claimed that there was now "improved access for viewing results", as well as "fine cooperation" between the ruling Frelimo party, the main opposition force Renamo, and the electoral bodies themselves in dealing with issues arising from imperfect polling station notices.
The polling station notices contain the results, but in some districts over 10 per cent of them are defective. This is usually a problem of arithmetical discrepancies - in many cases the total number of ballots cast does not tally with the number of voters whose names are ticked off in the electoral register. Paasio blamed this on mistakes made by tired polling station staff.
He said that the conditions for the count at the polling stations "are generally poor, in urban as well as rural areas".
The main difficulty was "insufficient lighting", Paasio added, but there were also problems of "lack of space, and tiredness and hunger of staff, to which the additional day of voting largely contributed".
Furthermore there were stations where the count did not take place immediately after the end of voting. "Some district STAEs (Electoral Administration Technical Secretariats) gave instructions to postpone counting to the next morning because of the poor lighting", said Paasio. "Others advised this, or registered no objection if asked permission. At some polling stations, staff themselves took the decision to postpone the count".
Among the irregularities EU observers noted were illegal campaign activities, by both Renamo and Frelimo, in the period after the close of the official campaigning. (Mozambican law bans campaigning from 48 hours before voting until after the close of polls.)
Paasio also said there had been "usage of public administration facilities by Frelimo". Pressed on this point, the EU team said they were referring to Frelimo use of state vehicles for electioneering, as well as undue use of the walls of state buildings for propaganda purposes.
The observers, who visited 750 polling stations (nine per cent of the total), in 34 districts, concluded that the stations "were generally well managed. Polling station staff were well trained, efficient and organised. Female headed polling stations did particularly well".
The EU team found that staff were careful to avoid any impression of bias, and thought that at times this led them not to give sufficient explanation to voters as to how to mark the ballot papers.
The observers noted that elderly citizens in particular had difficulty in understanding what to do, and sometimes just folded the ballot paper and dropped it into the box unmarked.
Paasio said that the unanimous conclusion of the EU observers was that the Mozambican elections were "second to none" of all the elections they had ever observed.
Mozambique's main opposition party, Renamo, on 14 December claimed victory in the elections.
At a Maputo press conference, the spokesperson for the Renamo election office, Gulamo Jafar, distributed what he called "official results and projections" showing that Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama would win the presidency, and Renamo will be the largest party in the next parliament.
The Renamo projection was that Dhlakama would win between 51.3 and 52.5 per cent of the presidential vote to between 47.5 and 48.7 per cent for the incumbent, Joaquim Chissano.
But the Renamo figures mix together the declared official results from three provinces (Maputo city, Maputo Province and Inhambane), what Jafar calls "final results" (but not yet declared ones) from Niassa and Cabo Delgado, and a string of projected percentages from the rest of the country.
Jafar also gave figures for the parliamentary election which he claimed also showed a Renamo victory. AIM has analysed these figures as far as possible, and concludes that the Renamo mathematics is wrong. Breaking Jafar's own percentages down into seats gives Frelimo 130 and Renamo 120 in the 250 member parliament.
The situation at the branch of the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) in the central province of Zambezia returned to normal on 11 December after earlier threats that Renamo would withdraw entirely from the electoral process in Zambezia.
According to Radio Mozambique on 11 December, the problem was solved by setting up a separate room in the STAE Zambezia offices, equipped with a computer, on which monitors from political parties can observe the tabulation of the results from the general elections of 3-5 December.
Such a room should have been set up several days earlier, in accordance with specific instructions from the National Elections Commission (CNE), the body in overall charge of the elections. But the Zambezia provincial STAE claimed its offices were cramped, and proposed a scheme whereby monitors would have only limited access to a computer at certain times of the day.
This was rejected by Renamo, and on 9 December a group of some 15 Renamo members and supporters forced their way into the STAE data processing room.
This incident led to the detention for a few hours of the three men regarded as ringleaders - Jose Manteigas, a Renamo deputy in the outgoing parliament, Manecas Daniel, leader of the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), one of Renamo's allies in the "Electoral Union" coalition, and Eduardo Latria, a Renamo parliamentary candidate.
But following the visit to Zambezia later that day by the two deputy general directors of STAE (one appointed by Renamo, and one by the ruling Frelimo Party), a solution was found and, according to the radio report, the situation has calmed down.
The computer should allow party monitors (and observers and journalists) to view the data from the polling stations that the STAE technicians have fed into the data base, and check this against their own records of the results.
The threat by Antonio Goncalves, deputy director of STAE- Zambezia appointed by Renamo, that Renamo would pull out was overruled by the Renamo leadership.
The tabulation of the results of the elections was delayed partly because computers are rejecting some of the data.
That was the explanation given at a press conference on 14 December by Jamisse Taimo, chairman of the National Elections Commission (CNE), the independent body in overall charge of the elections.
Rejection of data happens when there is a mathematical problem with a polling station notice - in short, when the numbers do not add up.
Taimo said that in such cases, the provincial elections commissions have to confront the polling station notice with the minutes of the station "and see what happened".
The polling station minutes are valuable documents because they are signed not only by the station staff, but also by political party polling station monitors. They should therefore be faithful records of the proceedings.
Antonio Carrasco, general manager of the CNE's executive arm, STAE (Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat) told AIM that he knows of no polling station where monitors refused to sign the minutes.
Asked what percentage of polling station notices were being rejected, Taimo gave no figures but said "We don't think it's a great problem".
Currently, the CNE is working "day and night" to verify the votes declared invalid at the polling stations, said Taimo.
There are hundreds of thousands of invalid votes: all of them must be looked at centrally to see whether the polling station staff have been too strict, and the votes do indeed reflect a clear preference of the voters.
Mozambique News Agency
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